With a lot of high
drama expected next year, we give to you a look ahead, forecasting some of the
biggest political battles which will be fought in 2018.
No doubt, 2018 will
witness a renewed intensity of political activities since the year precedes the
election year. Already, the announcement of the dates for the 2019 general
elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has given a
shot in the arm of political events, prompting events and secret meetings and
others. While these are only some of the biggest battles to be fought, the
Nigerian political landscape has a knack for serving up brand-new drama and
intrigues. Here, we give to you - in no particular order - the major events
that will dominate in the year 2018.
Mad rush for presidential
tickets
One of the biggest
political battles of 2018 will be the aggressive race to secure the
presidential tickets of various political parties. The race will be more
intense in the two ‘biggest’ political parties, the ruling All Progressives
Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
In the PDP, the
atmosphere is already charged as the battle for presidential ticket has already
kicked off. Governor Ayodele Fayose of Ekiti State had, at Chelsea Hotel, in
Abuja, publicly declared to run for the coveted office.
Former governors
Ibrahim Shekarau and Sule Lamido of Kano and Jigawa States, have also indicated
interest to run, as former vice president Atiku Abubakar has also returned to
the party with emerging indications that he would seek the ticket.
Others likely to throw
their hats into the ring are former governor of Kaduna State, Senator Ahmed
Makarfi, former Senate President David Mark and former governor of Sokoto
State, Attahiru Bafarawa.
The emergence of
Prince Uche Secondus as PDP national chairman has changed the equation as some
analysts say Atiku’s chances are now shaky.
In the ruling APC,
most party leaders have considered President Muhammadu Buhari the only who
could win for the party if given the ticket. But Mr President is yet to declare
for a second term, despite his body language that has indicated he will.
Daily Trust gathered
that in the event Buhari declines, former governor of Kano State, Senator Rabiu
Musa Kwankwaso, Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal of Sokoto State, Governor Nasir
El-Rufai of Kaduna State, Governor Kashim Shettima of Borno State and Governor
Rochas Okorocha of Imo State, will likely contest for the ticket.
If - or when - Buhari
emerges
Judging from the political
history of Nigeria, President Buhari will be adopted as the sole candidate of
the ruling APC not minding the talks that the party would subject all
presidential aspirants to primary election. Alhaji Shehu Shagari of the defunct
National Party of Nigeria (NPN) got the second-term in 1983 through the
adoption process. In 2011 and 2015, former President Goodluck Jonathan also got
the PDP ticket despite what seemed to be a fierce contest with former Vice
President Atiku Abubakar in 2011.
Already, the APC
governors have been canvassing for sole candidacy for Buhari. Surely, he will
be given the opportunity of first refusal.
Presidential campaigns
will begin
Subtle presidential
campaigns expected to focus on the nation’s key sectors and the general well-being
of Nigerians in relation to achievements recorded by the present government and
that of the PDP’s 16-year old reign will start in 2018. Political pundits say
issues of security, anti-graft war, human rights and economy are likely to
dominate campaigns with the two parties throwing all sorts at each other.
While other political
parties are also expected to field presidential candidates as well, it is clear
that 2019 will be a straight battle between the APC and the PDP, considering
that ‘small parties’ have failed to make significant impact at general
elections over the years.
Oyegun’s exit
The tenure of the APC
National Working Committee (NWC) ends in June 2018. Under the current
situation, the APC may have to organize one convention by May 2018 since the
possibility of holding two separate conventions, non-elective and elective, may
not be feasible because of cost.
The non-elective
convention which the party ought to have organized every two years may no
longer be realizable since the compulsory elective one which holds every four
years must be held by May next year.
The ruling party must,
as a matter of urgency, fast-track all activities towards conducting its
much-anticipated convention which cannot be held any time later than June 13,
2018, the day the tenure of the current NWC members will expire. However, if
the party leaders decide otherwise, the party may still organize two
conventions. The implication of this is that the APC will hold a non-elective
convention to endorse the amendment to the party’s constitution in the first
quarter of 2018, while the elective one, which will produce successors to Chief
John Odigie-Oyegun-led NWC, will be organized in the second quarter.
Hence, the ruling
party is expected to witness fresh and aggressive campaigns for the
soon-to-be-vacant positions in the NWC in 2018. No doubt, the name of Governor
Adams Oshiomhole may come up again as the possible successor to the APC
national chairman, Chief Odigie-Oyegun. This will certainly be a battle.
APC’s house-fixing
Another major battle
is the ruling APC’s efforts at trying to reconcile with aggrieved members in
2018. Some members of the coalition that merged to form the party are still
aggrieved over the treatment they have been receiving in the party, particularly
the then nPDP which believes that his people have not been treated fairly.
Already, the party has set up various reconciliation committees to address the
internal strife. The fence-mending efforts will intensify in 2018.
Engr. Segun Oni, the
APC Deputy National Chairman, in an exclusive interview with Daily Trust, said
that the differences in the party would be addressed. “In some cases, we
have obtained reports (of reconciliation committees) and we will work on them,”
Oni said. And work it will be indeed.
PDP’s house-cleaning
The PDP has a
herculean task of clearing its house by way of getting rid of all tendencies
capable of jeopardising its chances in 2019, and those are legion. Most party
leaders have identified imposition of candidates, impunity, disrespect for the
party’s constitution, hate speech, jettisoning of the zoning formula and lack
of cohesion as factors that led to the party’s humiliating defeat at the 2015
general polls.
Freshly-minted PDP
National Chairman, Prince Secondus, however, assured former national chairmen
and Board of Trustees (BoT) members at Wadata Plaza that his tenure will not
tolerate imposition and impunity.
However, a chieftain
of the party from the north, told Daily Trust that governors are still the
problem of the party, because they are the ones funding it. “So, stopping
impunity is difficult, and they always insist on having their way,” he said.
Observers say nipping
in the bud the new PDP faction which has named itself ‘Fresh PDP’, threatening
to put in place a parallel NWC in early January, 2018. The party would have to
address this. The party, pundits say, must work to ensure there are no
factions.
In addition, the likes
of Prof. Taoheed Adedoja and Chief Pegba Otemolu, who are challenging the
outcome of the convention at various courts, must be appeased. The Governor
Seriake Dickson-led Reconciliation Committee is also working to reconcile all
aggrieved aspirants.
Final term governors’
desperate rush for Senate
Five second-term
governors, including Kashim Shettima of Borno State and Abdulaziz Yari of
Zamfara State are said to be eyeing the Senate in the forthcoming 2019 general
elections. The Senate has become a sort of ‘retirement home’ for governors on
expiration of their second tenures. The tradition was entrenched in 2007
when second term governors practically bulldozed their ways there.
At the moment, 14
former governors, namely Bukola Saraki, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Aliyu Wamakko,
Godswill Akpabio, Danjuma Goje, Abdullahi Adamu, Adamu Aliero, Joshua
Dariye, Jonah Jang, Sam Egwu, Theodore Orji, George Akume, Ahmad Sani
Yarima and Bukar Abba Ibrahim are at the Senate.
The seats of some of
the former governors in the Senate are being threatened by the ambitions of
their successors, creating bad blood. But Daily Trust has observed the body
language of the second term governors, which suggest they are all out to retire
to the Senate come 2019.
The tenure of Governor
Shettima, like all other second-term governors, elapses by May 29, 2019.
Reports kept filtering round in the state on his intention to vie for the
senatorial election. However, it is unclear whether Shettima, who is the
chairman of the Northern Governors Forum will contest for Borno Central
or North senatorial district. His recent statement that his father hailed from
Gajiram in Guzamal local government area (LGA) of northern Borno, created the
confusion.
Yari who is a former
member of the House of Reps is said to be eyeing the seat of Senator Yarima,
his political godfather. Yarima presently occupies the Zamfara West senatorial
district seat. Initially, there were reports that Yarima has resolved to hand
over his seat to Yari. But it remains unclear.
The eyes of the Kwara
State governor, Abdulfatah Ahmed, are also said to be on the Senate. His
ambition is common knowledge in Kwara political circles. Ahmed, a banker turned
politician, is said to be eyeing the seat of Senator Rafiu Ibrahim of the Kwara
South Senatorial District. If he succeeds, and the two present senators, Bukola
Saraki and Shaaba Lafiagi of Kwara North senatorial district return to the
upper chamber in 2019, it would mean that all the three senators of Kwara State
would be former governors.
It is common knowledge
among the political heavyweights in Nasarawa State that the next move of
Governor Umaru Tanko Al-Makura is heading into the Senate. He is said to
be eyeing the seat of the Nasarawa South senatorial district being occupied by
Senator Suleiman Adokwe of the PDP.
The senatorial
ambition of the Yobe State governor, Ibrahim Geidam, has set him against
Senator Bukar Abba Ibrahim, who has been in the Senate since 2007. Geidam eyes
Yobe East senatorial district, being occupied by Ibrahim, a former governor of
Yobe. Recently, in an apparent reaction to the governor’s ambition, Senator
Bukar Abba Ibrahim told his colleagues on the floor that he will be in the Senate
for life.
Decampments
galore!
Senators and members
of the House of Reps may move from one party to the other in order to secure a
fresh ticket to return in 2019 if there is any threat to their ambition.
Tongues are already wagging as to whether the Senate President, Bukola Saraki,
and the former governor of Kano State, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso will dump the APC
for another political party in 2018.
The defection reports
of Kwankwaso are more pronounced than that of Saraki. But he has personally
denied the report. Recently, his media aide, Binta Spikin, said her boss is not
contemplating any idea to exit the APC.
It is widely believed
that if Kwankwaso decamps, many heavyweight politicians, especially in the
House of Representatives will join him. Kwankwaso’s feud with his successor in
Kano, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, has so far defied mediation efforts. As 2019
rolls along, all will become clear.
Ekiti’s epic
gubernatorial battle
Governor Ayo Fayose of
Ekiti State, whose tenure ends on October 15, 2018, will get a successor in the
coming new year. Already, the INEC has slated Ekiti governorship election
for July 14, 2018. According to timetables of activities signed by the
Secretary to the Commission, Mrs Augusta Ogakwu, the electoral body fixed April
15, 2018 for the commencement of campaigns, and April 16 for collection of
forms.
The conduct of party
primaries, including resolution of disputes arising from the primaries had been
scheduled to hold between April 15, 2018, and May 14, 2018, while last day for
submission of forms had been fixed for May 15, 2018.
Reports coming from
the state reveal that the contest still remains between the ruling PDP and the
opposition APC. Some say that the PDP may lose, following the adoption of the
Deputy Governor by Governor Fayose and the disenchantment of some people
towards the administration’s style of governance. Others, however,
believe that the PDP may still win as long as Fayose calls the shots.
Who will Osun’s cap
fit?
Osun State will get a
new governor in 2018. The INEC has fixed September 22, 2018 for the
governorship election in Osun State as the tenure of Governor Rauf Aregbresola
ends in November 28, 2018. The notice of election will be issued on June 23,
while campaign by political parties will commence on June 24 and end on
September 20, 2018.
There are fears that
the APC may lose the poll to any of the opposition political parties, going by
the outcome of the Osun-West senatorial district election. But some pundits,
however, believe that the ruling party may still win if it mends fences with
the aggrieved labour unions. The APC, some sources added, will enjoy the
support of the farmers and other areas localities who fear that another
government may abandon the on-going developmental projects within their domain
Source: DailyTrust
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